Ten years following the UK entered into a hasty public vote that polarised the country and triggered chaos, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two respected journalists from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our islands remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The team have studied the political, economic and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a book, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the issue with a series of lectures that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns all parties, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose consequences have remained undefined because then you land with an extraordinarily split population where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the people who have won are uncertain quite what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim such a time is imminent, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the prospect, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there will be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has hidden the shortage of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has taken place in scholarly circles but scarcely any elected officials or campaigners want to engage with even the basics. To illustrate, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, neither author endorses unification or the current situation. Both writes two essays that strive for objectivity in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument against, gathering economic and societal data, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Discussions cover national emblems, levies, healthcare systems, pensions, public liabilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to educate and stimulate discussion.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there has not yet occurred a debate," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an acknowledgement of the concept that there might be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters say they prefer unification but refuse paying higher taxes or adopting a different emblem to reflect unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government does need to determine what the plan from nationalist groups is aside from just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a referendum in his generation is likely and that it might occur suddenly. "There might be just a mad or a poor or a negligent government minister who states: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate points, he stated. "Somebody will prevail here and somebody will eventually be defeated but each side has got valuable insights to acquire from the alternative arguments."
Appeal for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster needed to join the debate, urged the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish question."
