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Usually, the NFL's Coach of the Year award adheres to a simple pattern. It often serves as a kind of apology. We regret we got wrong your franchise in our preseason predictions.

On paper, it's a direct path: the coach who oversaw the largest resurgence is handed the award. In reality, it fuels an annual argument about preseason outlooks and whether we're genuinely honoring superior coaching or simply the greatest shock.

However the current race is fundamentally unique. The group of nominees is unusually strong. It has been the season of resurgences. The NFL has been messy, with reigning conference winners falling away and recent also-rans rising in unison. In an normal season, Sean Payton leading the Denver Broncos to the top of the AFC would make him the clear front-runner. Yet in this wild and fun year, he's facing five other outstanding candidates.

Below is how the hypothetical ballot ought to shake out.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, 11-5

Coach of the Year selectors love QBs. History shows this. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. When you fix a quarterback, you're halfway home.

The Bears' head coach not only corrected Caleb Williams; he's unleashed him. Within an ideal environment, the QB has been given the chance to demonstrate his rare ability. From midseason onward, the Chicago offense sit at fourth in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a brief surge – it's sustained excellence. With his guidance, Williams has become increasingly decisive, far less careless, and has eagerly surrendered to the system instead of going rogue. It is an attack constructed solely in the coach's vision: a physical ground attack, a consistent dose of play-action and a creative passing attack that springs wide receiver receivers all over the field. The QB has taken advantage. And when openings haven't been there, he's been able to create big plays from nothing.

The coach arrived to Chicago with a clear offensive vision. Virtually each gamble – overhauling the offensive line, highlighting the pass-catchers, turning the QB into a rhythm thrower – has worked. This is uncommon for a rookie head coach. And it's even more uncommon still for a coach who entered the organization with the immense hype he did. For two straight offseasons, he was the most sought-after candidate on the coaching market. However when it comes to hiring a leader, there are zero sure things. Somehow, Johnson has met expectations – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not only to be a offensive genius but the type of culture builder that can inject new life into an franchise.

In a ordinary year, he would be the clear-cut favorite. Yet this is not a normal campaign!

Where Johnson's candidacy comes slightly unstuck is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense currently rank in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are relying on turnovers, and takeaways are famously fickle. Coaches can stress creating turnovers, but nobody can guarantee it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offense is sustainable. He's ranked lower because luck is doing too much of the defense's work. If not for a few breaks of the ball, the team would be several wins behind. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the foundation is in place for sustained success. But Johnson falls just short here.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar position to his counterpart. He's another rookie leader who has engineered a dramatic turnaround. During the crucial final weeks of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the most complete overall ball of his career. And he's also spearheaded the overhaul of a defense that now ranks fifth in the league in EPA per play.

Even more notably, Coen has mastered the intangibles stuff, which wasn't a certainty following his early press conference appearances and some of his offseason moves.

Coen walked into the Jaguars with an uncommonly inexperienced coaching staff. Unlike other coaches, who packed their staff with the ideal staff blend of new ideas and experience, he hired first-timers. Starting with the head coach on down to assistants to position coaches, the Jags are filled with first-timers. That kind of setup is exciting in theory, but frequently fails in practice – as past failures are a warning – because everybody is figuring out a their job on the fly. Yet he has managed to bring the entire group and everything into sync.

After an initial strong start, there was a possibility that the season would go off the rails. A mid-year setback caused the team stumbling once more. That's typically when coaches overcorrect. Coen did not. Rather, he streamlined things. Jacksonville stopped chasing home-run plays and started seeking sustainable ones. The coach recentered the attack around his playmakers and the running game, and asked his QB to use his mobility more.

The results are obvious. The Jaguars have won multiple games consecutively and will be the AFC's No 3 playoff seed. He receives the tiniest knock in the rankings because he inherited a talented roster, but he has proven he can maximize that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Each Coach of the Year argument has a defining decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback move.

Parting ways from a veteran, bringing in a different quarterback and partnering him with an innovative offensive coordinator might have derailed the campaign in the early weeks. Rather, it defined it. Through the mid point of the year, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player contender. He has cooled off since that time, dropping to 23rd in EPA per dropback over the latter part of the schedule, placing him only one place ahead of peers.

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